Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
