A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
